The RENEGADE 2008 Poll

Week-10: NW Indiana High School Top-10 Football Poll

A USA-365.com Special Report by Mark Smith

10-22-2008

VALPARAISO (10-24-2008)  Now we see whether this poll has been correct all season.  Most polls end with the regular season and they hope you forget who they had slotted where.  We'll take next week off while the sectional madness (the post-season is at least one week too long) wears down, but we'll be back before the sectional championship game.

To be blunt, anyone who does not have Valparaiso rated No. 1 now isn't taking the whole thing seriously.  But the No. 1 team does not always win.  You may have noted that 5A state champ Carmel got railroaded by Ben Davis last Friday and they will not enter the post-season as the top-ranked 5A squad.

I never pick against Bishop Chatard in 3A, but West Lafayette (9-0) crushed three-time 1A state champ Sheridan 37-7 last Friday and a state title match of West Lafayette and Bishop Chatard seems almost inevitable if you look at the weekly scores of both teams.

Let's look at where everybody stands and rate each team for the only thing that matters.  We must extend the disclaimer:  If you are sensitive, don't read beyond this point.  We're going to give out our annual odds for NW Indiana teams to reach the state finals and we must be honest.

1.)  5A Valparaiso (8-1)
 2007 (6-5), 2006 (3-6), 2005 (5-5), 2004 (6-5), 2003 (5-6)

VALPARAISO:  Valparaiso won a rout for the fourth week in a row, leading 34-0 after three quarters of a 34-7 win at Lake Central.  Halfbacks Nick Johnson and Eric Jackson are both over 800 yards rushing.  The Valpo defense has allowed 80 points all year and while there are not a lot of good offensive teams in the DAC this year, Valpo's size and kicking game makes them the top threat in 5A.  The question is:  Top threat for what?

ODDS on REACHING the state finals:  5%.  They probably can't beat Carmel.  The Vikings would have to hope Carmel would get upset.  The potential of QB Zach Livovich (6-5, 210) is unknown and that's what could extend them beyond the point where they should lose.  Odds on reaching the semistate are 50-50 because Valpo has already defeated Penn and everyone they would see in Sectional 1.



2.)  4A Lowell (9-0)
 2007 (13-2), 2006 (7-6), 2005 (11-4), 2004 (9-4), 2003 (11-2)

LOWELL:  The Devils stumbled through a 35-6 win over Andrean last week, finishing the school's fourth unbeaten regular season and their third 9-0 year.  I admit being uneasy about four fumbles in the season finale.  The good news is that halfback Brandon Grubbe, who was injured in week eight, came back in week nine and scored three TDs.  Kicker Matt Berkos has made 22 consecutive extra points over the last four games.  Not everybody in NW Indiana understands how difficult it was for Lowell to survive 4A Sectional 10 last year, which sent them on Friday night flights to Plymouth and Concord.  It was a more difficult achievement than Lowell winning the state title in 2005.

 ODDS on REACHING the state finals:  2%.  If that seems low, keep in mind that even if Lowell beats Washington (7-2), then Plymouth (9-0) or Concord (8-1), then Griffith (5-4) or Hobart (8-1), the Devils would still have to get through undefeated state superpower Bishop Dwenger (9-0) at the semistate.  No team has a more difficult path to the state finals.



3.)  5A Merrillville (5-4)
 2007 (12-2), 2006 (7-5), 2005 (11-3), 2003 (5-6), 2004 (6-5)

MERRILLVILLE:  The Pirates scored 28 unanswered points and turned back Chesterton for the 10th time in 12 years, 28-14 in the regular season finale.  The Pirates' much-heralded defense dominated the game, grabbing three interceptions and holding the Trojans to just 130 yards.  The Pirates have won four of their last five games (the loss was to co-DAC champ Valpo) and they drew the team they wanted, arch-rival Crown Point (3-6) in the Sectional One quarterfinals.  This is an odd team because they don't often have long sustained drives.  But they have play makers who can score on offense and defense.

ODDS on REACHING the state finals:  5%.  This team has so much speed defensively that if they stay hot, they could win four playoff games like Valpo could.  The problem is that Carmel is bigger and faster.  But Merrillville is the only region team that knows what the task is.  They played Carmel last year and they've also played Warren Central.  They have a 5% chance because they know what it costs to be the boss.



4.) 5A Chesterton (7-2)
2007 (6-4), 2006 (5-6), 2005 (3-8), 2004 (5-5), 2003 (7-4)

CHESTERTON:  What's funny about Chesterton's 28-14 loss to Merrillville last week is that no one would have been at all surprised with that result at the start of the year.  The Trojans we held to 130 total yards.  Back-up QB Andy Miller was 9-of-22 for 69 yards against the fast Merrillville secondary.  But the Trojans have to feel good about the draw, which keeps them home against up-and-coming Michigan City (4-5).  They beat MC 33-21 in September, although the Wolves are playing with more emotion now.  You get a feeling Chesterton has gone about as far as they can go, but I would not be shocked to see starting QB Aaron Knight return as something other than a QB.

ODDS on REACHING the state finals:  0%.  Zero.  None.  Without Knight (177 carries, 975 yards, 9 TDs), who has a broken hand, the Trojans just do not have the offense to score significant points on good team.  If they win nine games, it's been a great season.
 


5.)  4A Hobart (8-1)
2007 (8-4), 2006 (10-2),  2005 (6-6),  2004  (9-2),  2003 (5-7)

HOBART:   Hobart coasted past Highland 56-6 to end the regular season.  The Brickies' only loss is 35-32 at Lowell and they can live with that.  Hobart is 26-7 over the past three years and they open the playoffs with Gary West Side, so they'll be 27-7.  This is the difference between 4A and 5A.  There are no Highlands (0-9) or Gary West Sides in 5A.

 ODDS on REACHING the state finals:  5%.  How can Hobart have better odds than Lowell?  Look at the sectional.  Morton and Griffith could beat Hobart, but nobody outside northwest Indiana believes that's like playing South Bend Washington (7-2) and Plymouth (9-0) or Concord (8-1).  Also, every home game Hobart has now is a highly emotional event.  The Brickies are undefeated at home in the final year of the Brickie Bowl.  They may play over their heads at home and that's something all visitors must contend with.



6.)  5A Portage (6-3)
 2007 (5-5), 2006 (6-5), 2005 (2-8), 2004 (8-4), 2003 (11-2)

PORTAGE:  The Indians may have eased up last week after leading LaPorte 21-0 at halftime.  It was 21-19 before Ryan Cherry's fourth quarter run iced the 28-19 win.
Portage gained 320 yards last week, a big boost for a struggling offense.  The Indians drew 15 penalties last week, losing 185 yards.  What's up with that???  I give this team a lot of credit with all their injuries to clinch a winning record, but Portage does not have many offensive weapons beyond Cherry and tight end Clark Mussman.

ODDS on REACHING the state finals:  None.  Zero. They open the playoffs at Valparaiso (8-1), a team that beat Portage by 38 points two weeks ago.  Portage has given up 156 points (26.0) in their last six games.  It's been a good year, but it's over.



7.)  4A Griffith (5-4)
 2007 (9-4), 2006 (12-2), 2005 (12-1), 2004 (9-3), 2003 (7-5)

GRIFFITH:  Griffith slapped around East Chicago (4-4) 46-14 to end the regular season last week and they will do it again this week to begin the 4A playoffs.  It's a huge break to get a soft foe and the opportunity to play them once in week nine to practice on them.  Griffith's defense did give up 186 yards rushing, which is worrisome because they have to control the ball and wear people down.  I don't know how confident this team is because they don't have any really good wins.

ODDS on REACHING the state finals:  5%.  They have a very experienced defense and a relatively easy sectional path.  Griffith would host Hobart (8-1) and they have a long winning streak against Morton (5-4).  They might also host Lowell (9-0) in the semistate.  The Panthers have the raw talent to reach the state finals.  They simply haven't played like it.



8.) 5A Michigan City (4-5)
 2007 (2-8), 2006 (1-9), 2005 (6-5), 2004 (4-6), 2003 (3-7)

MICHIGAN CITY:  The Wolves didn't prove they were a better team than Crown Point, but they did win 10-7 in the regular season finale.  It was Michigan City's third win in four games and one of their losses was in overtime, which is actually a tie game.  MC really is 4-4-1.  QB Nate Scully is a little erratic, but halfback Adam Harmon (13 TDs) can get into the end zone.  A lot of what the Wolves are doing now is on emotion and that means they have a chance going to Chesterton for the playoff opener.

ODDS on REACHING the state finals:  None.  They'd have to beat Chesterton (7-2), Valparaiso (8-1) and Merrillville (5-4).  It's just not going to happen.  Eventually they're going to get beat down like Indiana University has been this month.  But the Chesterton game may be the 'Super Bowl' for the Wolves.  That's all they want.

 

9.)  5A CROWN POINT (3-6)
 2007 (8-3), 2006 (12-1), 2005 (11-1), 2004 (4-7), 2003 (5-5)

CROWN POINT:  Crown Point gained almost 300 yards and never saw the end zone in a 7-3 loss to Michigan City.  The Bulldogs have scored just 105 points (11. 6 per game) in nine games and that dog won't hunt.  Why are they still here?  The defense.  CP has held the opposition to 13 points or less six times against a schedule that includes three Top-10 teams.  CP isn't a bad team.  They just have a bad offense.

ODDS on REACHING the state finals:  Zero.  Zip.  Nada.  No comprende.  Folks who insist that defense wins championships have to come see the Bulldogs.  CP does not have the offense to survive sectional play, but they always have a chance against Merrillville.


 

10.)  5A Munster (6-3)
2007 (3-7), 2006 (5-5), 2005 (3-7), 2004 (4-6), 2003 (8-3)

 MUNSTER:  Munster closed with a 40-7 win over KV.  You worry they have not played a 5A schedule, but Joe Gill leads a balanced offense that rolled up 300 yards last week.  They got the team they wanted to draw, arch rival Lake Central, a team they lost to 20-19 in the season opener in August.

ODDS on REACHING the state finals:  None.  Less than none.  Munster has less chance than anyone because of the schedule and there somehow is an expectation that they SHOULD beat Lake Central (3-6) and that's a dangerous place to be in against a team that has played a far more difficult schedule.

 


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