Week 13 Picks:  2008 NW Indiana High School Football

A USA-365.com Special Report By Mark Smith

November 11, 2008

 

 

 

'Mr. Picker' WEEK 12, 2008 Football Picks in Review: Wrong - 4; Right - 12 = 75.0%
The Pick	The Result
Class 1A
South Newton 27, Triton 14	WRONG... Triton 23-21
Southwood 28, Souhern Wells 20	Southern Wells 35-0
Class 2A
Lewis Cass 20, Oak Hill 7	Lewis Cass 53-27
Rensselaer 28, North Judson 26	Rensselaer 9-0
Class 3A
West Lafayette 35, Yorktown 21	WRONG... Yorktown 34-26
Bellmont 35, Leo 7	Bellmont 41-7
St. Joseph's 21, Northwood 13	WRONG... Northwood 34-28
ANDREAN 42, Knox 21	ANDREAN 52-14
Class 4A
Delta 35, Muncie South 16	Delta 42-6
Bishop Dwenger 42, Wayne 0	Bishop Dwenger 47-7
LOWELL 35, SB Clay 12	LOWELL 49-20
Griffith 41, Morton 16	Griffith 21-7
Class 5A
Carmel 49, Harrison 7	Carmel 48-3
Snider 28, (FW) South 7	Snider 21-6
Penn 42, LaPorte 28	Penn 33-18
MERRILLVILLE 20, Chesterton 12	MERRILLVILLE 14-7

WEEK-TWELVE (12) RECAP from Friday, November 7, 2008:  Some shockers in the lower levels.  I'd take West Lafayette over Yorktown again if they played tomorrow.  Triton's got no business beating South Newton but they did. And I know Triton beat SN last year but this season the Rebels were the better team.  Southwood over Southern Wells was an upset.  Northwood and St. Joseph's was an even game.  The best pick?  There wasn't one.  With the possible exception of North Judson-Rensselaer (and that was a rivalry game that's always capable of going either way), none of the 12 correct picks was a surprise at all.  The spreads in the 5A games were all within a TD of being correct. That's about all I've got to say for last week.
 

'Mr. Picker's Recent Picking Record

2008 (Week 12)  12 of 16   = 75.0%
2008 (Week 11)  14 of 16   = 87.5%
2008 (Week 10)  24 of 28   = 85.7%
2008 (Week 9)  9 of 11   = 81.8%
2008 (Week 8)  11 of 12   = 91.8%
2008 (Week 7)  5 of 10   = 50.0%
2008 (Week 6)  9 of 11   = 81.9%
2008 (Week 5)  5 of 10   = 50.0%
2008 (Week 4)  7 of 10   = 70.0%
2008 (Week 3)  7 of 12   = 58.3%
2008 (Week 2)  6 of 10   = 60.0%
2008 (Week 1)  9 of 12   =  75.0%
2008 Regular Season:  68 of 98 = 69.3%
2008 Playoff Season:  50 of 60 = 83.3%
2008 Year to Date:  118 of 158 = 74.6%
2007 (final) OVERALL:  143 of 188 = 76.0%
2006 (final) OVERALL:  166 of 217 = 76.4%
2005 (final) OVERALL:  170 of 233 = 72.9%

MERRILLVILLE (11-14-2008) -  This is perennially a tough week.  Teams step outside their area (except in the twisted world of 4A Sectional 9 and Sectional 10) and you finally find out how strong they really are.  Also, some teams only wanted to win the sectional and a small percentage of the team is secretly quite happy to move on to basketball at this point.  There is some apprehension about NW Indiana teams that, except for the Griffith-Lowell survivor (obviously) they could all be gone late Friday.  Northwest Indiana was not very strong against outsiders this year.

Finally, let's strike a blow for conventional logic.  Before this season began, the two Class 2A regional finalists, judged on what they had returning, were supposed to be North Judson or Rensselaer and Lewis Cass.  In 3A, it was supposed to be Northwood or St. Joseph's against Andrean.  In 4A it was sure to be Hobart or Griffith against Lowell, Concord or Plymouth and in 5A, it was certainly going to be Penn and Merrillville.  There really haven't been any surprises.  Not yet.
 

Weather:  Upper 30s and some rain in the north (but maybe 10 degrees warmer in southern Indiana) could be a major factor.

Mr. Picker's rules: You have to pick all the games now.  There's no half-steppin'.  No excuses.  No exceptions.  And remember, fellow 'Pickers', care is suggested.  You can be fooled this week.


Class A

Lapel [10-2] at Cardinal Ritter [12-0]

INDIANAPOLIS (11-14-2008) Ritter is No. 1.  They've allowed 16 TDs in 12 games and they have hammered everybody except 2A No. 5 Heritage Christian (11-1) all year.  Heritage annihilated Lapel.  Ritter is bigger and they were 10-2 last year.  Lapel is lucky to be here, but their sectional is not as strong as Ritter's.  Never go against the Indianapolis private schools.  They have all the good players and the best names.  Wouldn't you want to be a Ritter Raider?

Ritter 35, Lapel 14

Linton-Stockton [12-0] at Rockville [12-0]

ROCKVILLE (11-14-2008)  This is an identical rematch to 2007.  A game where both teams were 12-0 going in.  LS lost the regional title 25-13 to Rockville last year.  You wonder about the competition in this part of the state.  The same two teams shouldn't go 12-0 in back-to-back years.  The Rockville Rocks have the senior leader in Matt King (6-4, 180) who quarterbacked his team to the 2007 state finals.  LS, led by defensive tackle Josh Mueuer (6-0, 294) has allowed 82 points all season.  But LS runs the spread attack.  Spread offense teams rarely survive an Indiana November.  Go with the home team.  I heard they got a transfer student from Arkansas.  When he was a baby, he lived in Little Rock.

Rockville 27, Linton-Stockton 14
 

Southern Wells [12-0] at Triton [8-4]

BOURBON (11-14-2008) I am amazed that Triton is still here, but the Trojans beat South Newton for a second consecutive sectional title.  But Triton has allowed more points than they have scored.  No team in the history of this state has reached the state title game allowing more points (for the season) than they have scored.  This is not a tough call.  But then, I had South Newton beating Triton by 2 TDs, too, didn't I?

Southern Wells 28, Triton 7


Pioneer [10-2] at Sheridan [11-1]

SHERIDAN (11-14-2008) Sheridan has only lost to West Lafayette (11-1) while Pioneer has lost to North Judson (8-4) and Lewis Cass (11-1).  Sheridan, the 3-time defending state champ, is a big, physical team with 2,000-yard rusher (in 2007) Nick Zachary (6-1, 200) and big tailback Ty Perkins (6-3, 190) running behind tackle Arick Clements (6-2, 320) and guard center Travis Paddack (6-0, 250).  This is a mismatch. Sheridan was 15-0 the last two seasons and they are built for bad weather.  Pioneer only plays 1A and 2A schools.  This is almost a sure thing.

Sheridan 28, Pioneer 0

Class 2A


Heritage Christian [11-1] at Speedway [9-3]

SPEEDWAY (11-14-2008) Looks like a mismatch here.  Only 1A power Ritter has scored more than 15 points on HC.  The Speedway Sparkplugs upset top-ranked North Putnam two weeks ago but they've got to do it again here and I don't see it.  HC averages 41 points a game and they've held nine teams to seven points or less.  Weather could make this closer than it should be because Speedway is bigger physically.

Heritage Christian 28, Speedway 21
 

Brownstown Central [10-1] at Southridge [11-1]

HUNTINGBURG (11-14-2008) Southridge plays a more difficult schedule than Brownstown, which doesn't have a whole lot of neighbors in Jackson County. Southridge, which is 33-8 the last three years, runs that wing-T offense which is good for a cold November night.  I don't even recognize some of the schools Brownstown has played. Where is West Washington and Mitchell?

Southridge 35, Brownstown 13
 

FAIRMONT (11-14-2008) This isn't worth the $6.  Madison-Grant, I believe, is quite happy to have won the sectional after a 3-5 start. M-G allows 23 points a game although they did shut out Tipton last week 14-0. But Jimtown plays Elkhart powers Northwood (10-2) and Concord (9-2) and that helped them eliminate Fort Wayne powers Harding and Bishop Luers. The Jimmies, four-time state champions, have held seven teams to seven points or less. This will get ugly.

Lewis Cass [11-1] at Rensselaer [7-5]

RENSSELAER (11-14-2008) Cass is 51-8 the last five years and they are trying to reach the state finals for the first time.  But Rensselaer is a big physical bad weather team led by big brothers Terry Davisson (6-7, 270) and Ben Davisson (6-9, 300) and all-stater Ben Ahler (6-4, 235) in the offensive line.  But Cass has Kitt O'Brien (6-7, 300) in the lines.  These teams want to run the ball and they wont take 'no' for an answer.  This is a hard call because Rensselaer has played better teams than Cass.

Cass 21, Rensselaer 14

Class 3A
 

North Montgomery [12-0] at Bishop Chatard [11-1]

INDIANAPOLIS (11-14-2008) The state's dominant 3A team will be challenged  truly for the first time in the post-season by NM and QB Clayton Dale (135-of-216, 1,917 yards, 19 TDs.  But Chatard has played six 4A schools and no one has scored more than 15 points against them.  That's interesting because North Montgomery has scored 20 or more in every game.  Chatard junior halfback Ari Pappas (6-0, 190) has 3,000 career yards and he runs behind all-stater Zack Martin (6-6, 270).  North Montgomery wont go quietly but they will go.

Bishop Chatard  24, North Montgomery 14
 

LINCOLN CITY (11-14-2008) Heritage Hills dominated Edgewood 42-0 last week but they'll need more on this night because Memorial has lost only to 4A powers Reitz (9-2) and Jasper (11-1) . Memorial runs a spread offense but they also have a lot of size in the lines. Heritage Hills has eight regional titles but Memorial plays in a much tougher league in Evansville and they have a victory over 5A Castle (10-2), who is still alive in the 5A tournament.

Evansville Memorial 28, Heritage Hills 24 
 

DECATUR (11-14-2008) Bellmont never won a sectional as 4A school, With a drop to 3A (in 2007), the Braves took the first sectional in the history of the school and they'd like a little more. Yorktown is coming off an upset on undefeated West Lafayette and I'm thinking that's all they want. QB Jacob Walker has thrown for 2,000 yards for Yorktown but they're in a lot of shootouts. In for of their games, both teams scored 20 or more. You've got to like Bellmont at home.

ANDREAN [6-6] at NorthWood [10-2]

NAPPANNEE (11-14-2008) Northwood and four-year QB Skyler Titus (6-3, 215) are 3-0 against 5A schools. They don't throw much so its tough to force mistakes out of them. Andrean halfback Kyle Kovach has an amazing 13 TDs in the playoffs.  I've liked the Niners to this point but they are stepping up in class here and riding the big yellow bus to one of the toughest home field in all of this part of the state.

Class 4A

Zionsville [8-4] at Cathedral [10-2]

Griffith [8-4] at LOWELL [12-0]

LOWELL (11-14-2008) Lowell was 13-2 last year and they have 1,600-yard rusher Brandon Grubbe plus a fast, hard-hitting defense.  Griffith is led by a senior laden defense and 1,000-yard rusher Ed Johnson.  These two are league rivals and Lowell won the earlier meeting by 15 points even though Grubbe didn't play. This is a big rivalry, These teams have played every year since the 1930s.  Lowell traditionally does not always do well in regional games at home (Lowell has lost the last four home regional playoff games they have played), its hard to see it come out any other way this time.

LOWELL 27, Griffith 14


Bishop Dwenger [12-0] at Delta [12-0]

MUNCIE (11-14-2008) Delta returns 20 starters off an 8-2 team in 2007 and they must be fun to watch. The Eagles throw the ball all over creation and average 47 points a game with players like fullback Kyle Stevens (6-2, 225) and tight end Dane Humphrey (6-5, 225). The Eagles do allow a lot of points (21 per game) and  Bishop Dwenger likes the sound of that. Dwenger QB Trevor Yerrick (6-0, 180) does not throw a lot (63 of 115, 1,008 yards - 13 TDs)  but he has run for 12 TDs. Robby Kimes (5-11, 165) has run for 1,000 yards. The Saints have three 250-pound veteran offensive linemen. Delta can score but Dwenger can score a lot more.

Bishop Dwenger 40, Delta 21



Class 5A

Carmel [11-1] at (Fort Wayne) Snider [11-1]

FORT WAYNE (11-14-2008) Snider, which is going for its 12th regional championship, is a speedy, run-dominated team which could pull a major upset here on a bad weather night.  But short of that, they have problems. Carmel, which has won six state titles, is led by the state's top offensive player. senior QB Morgan Newton (6-4, 215) who was 136 of 195 for 1,521 yards and only four interceptions after 11 games. Fullback  Kurt Freytag (6-2, 220) has 1,000 yards rushing. The state tourney results are in dictating that Fort Wayne wasn't that strong overall this year. A lot of things have to go right early for Snider to win. Too many things.

Carmel 35,  Snider 12
 

Ben Davis [9-3] at Warren Central [10-2]
 

INDIANAPOLIS (11-14-2008) Two of the states largest schools battle it out for the right to pound some school half their size later in the tournament. Ben Davis (4,298 students) and Warren Central (3,975 teens) will put on a high-scoring show for a standing room while explaining why there needs to be a Class 6A in Indiana football. Both teams average over 30 points a game and allow more than 20 a game against a schedule which includes all 5A schools. Warren won the earlier match 42-21 in September and they should be better offensively at this point.

Center Grove [11-1] at Castle [10-2]

CASTLE (11-14-2008) Normal sized schools Castle (1,700) and Center Grove (2,300) battle it out for the right to get out manned by Warren or Ben Davis? Probably not. Center Grove's only loss was 33-32 to Carmel in September  but they scored 44 points on Ben Davis and 56 points on Warren Central. Center Grove QB Jordan Luellen (6-4, 208) leads perhaps the state's top offense, averaging nearly 50 points a game. No one has stopped them all year and Castle, which does not play nearly as tough a schedule as CG, wont be the first.

Center Grove 35, Castle 7

MERRILLVILLE (11-14-2008) A rematch of the 2007 regional won by Merrillville 21-20. Both teams had huge ups and downs early in the season (both teams began the season with 1-3 records) but these are the two who are supposed to be here. Penn had real trouble against the run of LaPorte last week while the Pirates defense has allowed just 37 points combined in the last five games. Cold weather will limit passing but both sides prefer to run and play defense.  I think Merrillville is perfectly suited to play Penn. The Kingsmen's quickness  doesn't overwhelm Merrillville.  In a conservatively played game, the Pirates keep the regional crown.

MERRILLVILLE 20,  Penn  14


Copyright © 2008 USA-365.com and Meyer Multimedia Services, a division of Meyer Broadcasting Corp.  All rights reserved.
Revised: November 20, 2008 .