Week 8 Picks:  2008 NW Indiana High School Football

A USA-365.com Special Report By Mark Smith

October 8, 2008


 

'Mr. Picker' WEEK 7, 2008 Football Picks in Review:

Wrong - 5; Right - 5 = 50.0%
The Pick The Result

Clark 28, Gavit 20  

Clark 41-14

Whiting 35, Calumet 20  

WRONG... Calumet 14-13

Kankakee Valley 21, Andrean 16  

Kankakee Valley 34-17

South Central 49, North Newton 21  

WRONG... North Newton 30-29

Lowell 52, Hammond 20  

Lowell 63-0

Michigan City 24, Portage 16  

WRONG... Portage 20-14 (OT)

Chesterton 28, Lake Central 14  

Chesterton 28-10

LaPorte 28, Crown Point 17  

WRONG... Crown Point 35-28

Hobart 27, Munster 14  

Hobart 24-23

Merrillville 26, Valparaiso 23  

WRONG... Valparaiso 24-13

 

WEEK-SEVEN (7) RECAP from Friday, October 3, 2008:  Back to the .500 mark.  That's not good.  Again, all the close games went the other way, especially that Michigan City-Portage overtime game.  LaPorte lost a halftime lead against CP.  Calumet won in the final seconds and South Central lost multiple leads against North Newton.  Oh, well.  I had a worse week than the Cubs and White Sox.  The best pick of the week was KV's first win over Andrean in a couple of decades.  Too little.  Too late.

'Mr. Picker's Recent Picking Record

2008 (Week 7)  5 of 10   = 50.0%
2008 (Week 6)  9 of 11   = 81.9%
2008 (Week 5)  5 of 10   = 50.0%
2008 (Week 4)  7 of 10   = 70.0%
2008 (Week 3)  7 of 12   = 58.3%
2008 (Week 2)  6 of 10   = 60.0%
2008 (Week 1)  9 of 12   =  75.0%
2008 Year to Date:  48 of 75 = 64.0%
2007 (final) OVERALL:  143 of 188 = 76.0%
2006 (final) OVERALL:  166 of 217 = 76.4%
2005 (final) OVERALL:  170 of 233 = 72.9%

Northwest Indiana WEEK-EIGHT (8) PICKS, 10-10-2008

VALPARAISO (10-10-2008) - The spectra of a 4-way tie for first place has risen in the Duneland Conference.  In 2002, Boone Grove, Kouts, Hebron, Morgan  Township and Wheeler all finished 5-2 and tied for the Porter County Conference basketball championship.  A small school fluke?

Hold on.  If Chesterton loses to Crown Point and Merrillville (not impossible) while Portage beats Valparaiso and LaPorte; Valparaiso beats Lake Central and CP beats Michigan City, then what?  Well CP, Valparaiso, Chesterton and Portage all end up with 5-2 records in the first 4-way tie in the 38-year history of the league.

What's likely:  Valparaiso will win its final two games, Chesterton will split its last two and the Vikings and Trojans will end in a two-way tie.  That's also rare.  Most of the 38 DAC champs (30 of 38) have gone undefeated in league play.

Lets drop the blowouts.  Bowman Academy has no chance against East Chicago.  Rensselaer will get crushed by 1A state champ Sheridan.  No contest.  Highland had little chance against Kankakee Valley and Gary Roosevelt (0-5) has no chance against Gary West Side.


Gavit (2-5) at Hammond (4-3)

HAMMOND (10-10-2008) This is, in theory, one of the final Gavit-Hammond games.  Nothing definite, but in 10 years, Gavit and Hammond may consolidate into a new-and-improved Hammond high.  A very difficult match-up and its all on Hammond, which has allowed 63 points in each of the last two weeks to teams they knew they wouldn't beat.  Here's a very beatable team and the purple boys got a good draw.  It's not about Gavit here.  If Hammond wasn't totally beaten down by Morton and Lowell the last two weeks, they rally to win here.

Hammond 26, Gavit 22


Lake Station (0-7) at North Newton (2-5)

MOROCCO (10-10-2008) The Spartans have won two of their last three and they've won on the road.  I don't know how they scored 27 second half points with just 197 total yards last week to win 30-29, but they did.  Steven Groah ran a kickoff back for a TD with 45 seconds left to win the game.  This is the final regular season home team for the Spartans and Lake Station, even though they won this match-up by 36 points last year, can't take the ride an hour down south and win.  Why are these two teams in the same league?

North Newton 28 Lake Station 20


Whiting (5-2) at Clark (4-3)

HAMMOND (10-10-2008) This is a high-powered match-up and the scoreboard won't be quiet here.  Sophomore QB Micah Rooke threw for 215 yards last week in a 41-14 win.  Whiting QB Dan Macon is 121 of 215 for 1,588 yards and 16 TDs and he won't stop on this night.  I don't think there's a home team in this game because Clark is right across the street from Whiting.  I like the Pioneers who have run the ball a little better.

Clark 30, Whiting 21


Morton (4-3) at Hobart (6-1)

HOBART (10-10-2008) Morton has surged in recent weeks.  They average 39.6 per game and have won four of five.  But I think Hobart got a big lift out of the 21-point fourth quarter rally against Lowell on Sept. 26.  This will be a very good show, but the Brickies want to go undefeated at home this season and Morton won't be able to stop the run enough to win here.

Hobart 42, Morton 21


South Central (2-5) at Calumet (6-1)

GARY (10-10-2008) Calumet may have some injury problems here and South Central lost on a kickoff return in the final minute last week.  Calumet is one game away from the showdown with Wheeler for the Greater South Shore Conference (GSSC) title.  This is the Warriors' final home game and they must win, but they are not strong enough to just phone this game in.

Calumet 32, South Central 16


Bishop Noll (3-4) at Wheeler (7-0)

UNION TOWNSHIP (10-10-2008) Wheeler has the final two games at home and the only reason this game could be close would be if the Bearcats are looking ahead to the final league game against Calumet.  I'm on shaky ground even including this game because Noll has allowed 30 points a game and there aren't a lot of scenarios that end with Noll winning here.

Wheeler 52, Bishop Noll 14


LaPorte (2-5) at Michigan City (2-5)

MICHIGAN CITY (10-10-2008) Here's an example of the difference between the Duneland Conference and the Northwest Crossroads Conference.  These two teams would be in title contention in the Northwest Conference.  LaPorte lost a second half lead to CP last week while MC lost in overtime.  Experienced QBs and good offenses here.  But LaPorte hasn't stopped the run all season.

Michigan City 28, LaPorte 24


Lake Central (3-4) at Merrillville (3-4)

MERRILLVILLE (10-10-2008) The Pirates have played a tougher schedule than LC so far and Lake Central is averaging 14 points a game.  I can't explain that.  But Merrillville's defense has allowed almost 300 yards a game and I can't explain that either.  This game could be more boring than the McCain-Obama debate, but I think the Pirates' speed and their QB are a cut above LC.

Merrillville 29, Lake Central 14


Portage (5-2) at Valparaiso (6-1)

VALPARAISO (10-10-2008) Valparaiso is the best team in this region and they will bring that to the table tonight.  There is just a physical difference between these two in the lines and the I don't see a lot of ways the Indians can win here.  Valparaiso is 6-1 and they haven't played a complete game yet.  This could be it.  I just have a feeling this is the Bears against the Lions.  Remember?  Last Sunday?

Valparaiso 34, Portage 7


Andrean (3-4) at Griffith (3-4)

GRIFFITH (10-10-2008) The 59ers have had real problems against the run and that will be the difference here.  Griffith has lost to four good teams.  Andrean may be a little short on confidence now and this game won't help.  The 59ers have to feel good about their draw and this game isn't crucial to their season.  Griffith is better than they have shown, but they can't lose here and they won't.

Griffith 28, Andrean 14


Munster (5-2) at LOWELL (7-0)

LOWELL (10-10-2008) The future got real for Lowell when they got a very difficult draw in Class 4A Sectional 10 this week.  The Devils have to get tough against passing teams and they know it.  Munster, with lefty Joe Gill, is a good warm up for South Bend Washington and the Mustangs have to be lifted by a draw that matches them with neighbor Lake Central.  Munster loss last week and the state draw may have taken the do-or-die edge off this game.

Lowell 31, Munster 21


Chesterton (6-1) at CROWN POINT (3-4)

CROWN POINT (10-10-2008) The best game of the week where Chesterton's option offense and 1,000-yard rushing QB Aaron Knight (6-1, 195) will try to win for the sixth consecutive week against a CP team which was very good defensively until the last two weeks when they got steamrollered by Valparaiso and LaPorte on the road.  But CP did find 35 points and 436 yards of offense last week after averaging 10 points a game most of the season.  The Trojans can clinch a half-share of the DAC title if they win, but this is CP's Homecoming and their final home game.  CP's quick defense won't be optioned all night.

CROWN POINT 20, Chesterton 14


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Revised: October 08, 2008 .